Iraq is Now Officially Lost

One point of contention during the past presidential campaign was whether, in fact, Kerry could have done anything if elected to actually "succeed" in Iraq. Given the fact that he would only have been sworn in 2 weeks ago, and given the facts on the ground there today, that seems unlikely. That doesn't obscure the fact that the reality of the situation was entirely a creation of George W. Bush.

In his blog today, University of Michigan professor and Middle East expert Juan Cole presents his take on what would no doubt be the best case scenario over the next few years. The other scenarios are all probably worse in most senses. There is still the very real possibility that Iraq could either split into 3 independent states or dissolve into civil war, though both are probably temporarily prevented by the presence of a large American force. As we begin to draw down forces (which we almost certainly will for several reasons), though, that risk will increase unless the government's new army is truly willing to fight and die to protect it. The only way they are likely to do that is if they see the government truly representing their interests, which is uncertain given the number of competing interests in the country. All available evidence indicates that if our occupation doesn't begin to wind down, the insurgency will continue to grow and create even greater problems for the government.

Cole focuses on the best case scenario, in which the government does succeed in standing up an effective army. But this really depends upon the moral authority of the Shia'a clerics in Najaf, and Cole shows that while they are willing to use the words of secular democracy to cover their tracks, they really intend, like Brer Rabbit, to get their own way, i.e. a Consitution based upon Islamic Law, and wind up effectively in charge when we get tired and go home.

Under any of these scenarios, we've been fighting for little other than the opportunity for 'W' to avenge his daddy. Meanwhile, our administration will continue to insist that black is white, and that "democracy" has been achieved.

DEMOPHOENIX