Regressives in Trouble

The raft of recent polling showing Bush sliding into the low 40's nationally has continued even after his nationally-televised speech Tuesday night. State by state polls do show a large divide between last November's red and blue states, but Bush's weakness is revealed even in the red states. He trails in all of last fall's battleground states, including by a wide margin in Ohio.

Even in Texas, Bush is not much better than even, with approval besting disapproval statewide by only 50-47 in June. In west Texas (his best region), approval outweighs disapproval by only 54-41. Splits of the Texas data reveal his pronounced weakness among the young (18-34 year olds disapprove by 51-46), among independents (disapprove 56-38) and among Hispanics (disapprove 56-41). Of course, we should be chastened by the fact that those are also exactly the demographic subgroups least likely to put their fannies in a voting booth.

These numbers combine with Gov. Goodhair's unpopularity to provide both opportunity and challenge for Democrats. The opportunity is palpable. Dissatisfaction with regressive governance is manifest. Charles Kuffner has reported that the state of the playing field may entice some big name Dems to suit up for next year. But Greg Wythe correctly notes that having a big name is overrated, and that we would be well advised to avoid nominating any candidate just for his/her name. The challenge is to develop an infrastructure (grassroots organization, fundraising, communications machinery) that is competitive with that of the R's. That is a long-term challenge that isn't going to be solved in the next 2 years, and probably not in the next 4. And without it, we will be at a disadvantage in getting our message out and getting those marginal voters who agree with us to show up; nevermind that we have reality on our side. But this is the time to build. There are times that a compelling narrative can combine with good timing to overcome strong organization. Having strong candidates with that compelling message gives us an opportunity to win now, and assures that we will take a step forward in building our party machinery.

It is critical that everyone who considers themselves a Democrat come out for local events (put the evening of July 16 on your calendars now--more to come soon). Talk to your friends and neighbors about just giving our candidates a chance to be heard. Then step up to the plate and make a contribution of whatever you can afford to (1) your county party, (2) the state party and (3) at least one candidate per cycle. Remember that the days when a few big-money donors ruled the roost is over. John Kerry outraised George Bush last year, and over half his money came from contributions of less than $100.

Slow and steady wins the race. Be the turtle.

DEMOPHOENIX